Tories grab lead in poll

I had previously thought that an election wouldn't be until the Spring but a recent poll by SES suggests otherwise:

"The temptation to defeat the government will be overwhelming," Strategic Counsel chairman Allan Gregg said.

"They know that when this issue fades, their fortunes fade with it, so sooner is better than later."

Mr. Gregg added that the poll demonstrates gains for all three opposition parties if a vote were held today.

The results suggest the Conservatives are the preferred option of 31 per cent of Canadians, 3 percentage points ahead of the Liberals, who are favoured by 28 per cent. The New Democrats are third with 20 per cent, while the Green Party is the first choice of 7 per cent.

The most important number here is the one for the NDP which is up from the last poll where they were at 15%. Jack Layton is holding the cards here. If the Liberals can't get his support for their minority government, they're sunk.

The NDP and Liberals had been in talks previously to address increasing privitisation of health care and how to stop it. The NDP wanted the Liberals to take some strong legislative measures to prevent money from leaking into the private system with public dollars. The Liberals weren't willing to make changes. Now, I'm not sure anything the Liberals promised would be enough but whatever they offer will have to be an NDP agenda (without looking like one).