Canadian Politics. It's not so boring.

November 14, 2005

NDP's gain the newest headache for Martin

The struggle for a Liberal majority will be more difficult because of the surprising strength of the NDP, the poll, conducted for the Star by EKOS Research, shows. It's the New Democrats, in fact, who appear to be reaping the most gains since the last election, with 21 per cent support across the country.

That's a good five-plus percentage points above their 2004 election results, with the NDP neck-and-neck with the Liberals for support in B.C., and well above the Liberals in the Prairies. Moreover, 13 per cent of former Liberal voters and 5 per cent of former Tory voters say they've moved to the NDP.
This is interesting because it also shows that the Conservatives have possibly lost some support to the NDP since a previous poll had pegged the Conservatives at 30 percent and now they're at 28 percent. I say "possible" because the gain is within the margin of error. Furthermore, most voters appear to believe that the election (whatever that means) will result in the same thing we have now:
Most Canadians, in fact, think that the next government will also be a Liberal-led minority government. A full 63 per cent said they expected the Liberals to emerge victorious after the next election and even more, 72 per cent of respondents, believed the next government would be a minority. Of those predicting a minority government, 46 per cent said that would be a good thing for the country.
This makes me wonder how effective the Liberals scare-mongering will be that the Conservatives could attain a majority. Even if the Conservatives did remarkably well in campaigning the best they could hope for would be a minority themselves. If Canadians realize this, will the Liberals still be able to steal votes away from the NDP as happened in 2004?


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